Last week, some stats were released about the first month of Black List 3.0. If you want to take a look at the data, you can find it here.
A few things jumped out at me:
-Over 50% of all USA submissions came from California; 45% overall
- the most numerous uploads by genre were Drama, Comedy and Thriller.
- the mean of all ratings of uploaded scripts is 5.26 with a standard deviation of 1.90. The fact that the mean lands right in the middle of the ten-point scale is a pretty good sign that there likely are as many good scripts on the site as bad ones. That'll be a figure that will be interesting to observe in the coming months.
- In comedy, the drop in ratings is far more steep than any of the other categories, once outside the range of standard deviation (and it's a pretty steep slope even before getting outside that range.) Contrast that with the less severe slope on Drama.
- Very interesting that plot had the lowest Mean Component. Actually, I find the ranking of the Means on all of those interesting. Premise was the highest, so you could infer that the numbers are telling us that people have a lot of good ideas, but they're really falling down on execution.
- I'll be curious to see how the figure of 13.9% of uploaded scripts being rated holds over the next few months. I saw some reaction to these figures last week, with people being concerned that such a small number of downloaded scripts were getting rated, but that actually feels right to me. You have to assume that most of the industry pros are only going to read the script so long as it has their attention. If they get 60 pages in and it's clear that they're not responding to the writing or the plot takes a turn that it can't recover from, or the tone is all wrong, or whatever, they're probably not going to finish reading the script just so they can rate it.
And that's a good thing for the writer. It suggests that they'll get fewer bad reviews simply because the people responding most negatively to the script aren't going to be in a position to pass judgement on the writing if they decide to bail out early on.
- Also interesting to see that "Most Downloaded" scripts pretty much cut across all genres.
Overall, I'm pretty pleased with what I see here. There aren't any immediate red flags in the data that have me concerned. For me, the most interesting thing will be revisiting some of these figures six months in and see if there are any unusual shifts.
Representations and warranties
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